Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management

Preface. 1: System Framework. Systems engineering of natural resources under changing physical conditions: a framework for reliability and risk; L. Duckstein, E. Parent. Systems engineering of natural resources under changing physical conditions: State of the art in systems modeling; E. Parent, L. Duckstein. Design and control of water systems under unsteady conditions; R. Soncini-Sessa. Institutional analysis and water resources management; M. Waterstone. 2: The Changing Input Function. Numerical models for the simulation of natural and anthropogenic climate variations; J.C. André. Estimation of local climatic factors under climate change; I. Bogardi, I. Matyasovszky, A. Bardossy, L. Duckstein. Synenergistic effect of dam and forecast on flood probabilities: a Bayesian analysis; K.S. Kelly, R. Krzysztofowicz. 3: Stochastic Analysis under Nonstationary Conditions. Some reliability measures for nonstationary Markov chains; I. Abi-Zeid, B. Bobée. Statistical detection of changes in geophysical series; J. Bernier. Risk analysis of hydrologic data: review and new developments concerning the Halphen distributions; B. Bobée, P. Rasmussen, L. Perreault, F. Ashkar. 4: Regional Consequences of Climatic Change. Estimation of extreme regional precipitation under climate change; A. Bardossy. Detection and modeling of the impact of climatic change on river flows; G. Cavadias. Sea level rise problems; T. Pohlmann, J. Sündermann. Climatic changes during the 20th century on the Laurentian Great Lakes and their impacts on hydrologic regime; M. Slivitzky, L. Mathier. Sediment yield and pollution from small watersheds under changing climatic conditions; I. Bofgardi, J.Ganoulis, L. Duckstein, I. Matyasovszky. Water quality in coastal zones under variable climatic conditions; J. Ganoulis, L. Duckstein, I. Bogardi, I. Matyasovszky. Report of Panel 1: Global change, a statistical myth? B. Bobée, G. Cavadias (rapporteurs). 5: Engineering Decisions under Uncertainty and Risk. Inference and decision under near ignorance conditions; W.F. Caselton, W. Luo. Design and control of water systems in presence of inflow scenarios; R. Soncini-Sessa, A. Karbowski. Risk of extreme flood losses under uncertain physical conditions; J.H. Lambert, D. Li, Y.Y. Haimes. Sea level rise: A probabilistic design problem; J.K. Vrijling. Quantitative analysis of uncertainties in water resources. Application for predicting the effects of changes; J. Bernier. Strategic decisions under nonstationary conditions: a stopping-control paradigm; R. Krzysztofowicz. Report of Panel 2: When and how should we act? M. Waterstone (rapporteur). 6: Policy and Case Studies. Managing water resources for adaptation to climate change; E.Z. Stakhiv. The effects of climate change on storm surges; E.J. Plate. Evaluating climate change impacts on the management of the Great Lakes; P. Chao, B.F. Hobbs, E.Z. Stakhiv. Water management in the Neste system; P. Hurand. Planning and management of water resources in the southwest of France in a dynamic physical, social and economic environment; V. Hammel. Balancing reservoir management and water conservation: Application to hydropower and irrigation; F. Fourcade, F. Quentin. Report of Panel 3: To act or not to act? E.Z. Stakhiv (rapporteur). Index.