Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to AIDS Epidemiology

Statistical and Mathematical Approaches in HIV/AIDS Modeling: A Review.- I. Statistical Methodology and Forecasting.- Epidemic Models, Empirical Studies, and Uncertainty.- Predicting AIDS Incidence by Extrapolating from Recent Trends.- II. Infectivity and the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV).- Measuring HIV Infectivity.- The Stages of HIV Infection: Waiting Times and Infection Transmission Probabilities.- Modeling Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Infectivity for HIV Infection.- On the Role of Variable Infectivity in the Dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic.- III. Heterogeneity and HIV Transmission Dynamics.- Assessment of the Risk of HIV Spread Via Non-steady Heterosexual Partners in the U. S. Population.- On the Role of Long Incubation Periods in the Dynamics of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Part 2: Multiple Group Models.- Nonrandom Mixing Models of HIV Transmission.- IV. Social Dynamics and AIDS.- The Structure and Context of Social Interactions and the Spread of HIV.- Pair Formation in Sexually-Transmitted Diseases.- Mixing Framework for Social/Sexual Behavior.- Interaction, Pair Formation and Force of Infection Terms in Sexually Transmitted Diseases.- Structured Mixing: Heterogeneous Mixing by the Definition of Activity Groups.- Selective Contact within Structured Mixing with an Application to HIV Transmission Risk from Oral and Anal Sex.- V. The Immune System and the HIV.- Modeling the Interaction of the Immune System with HIV.- Modeling the Interaction of HIV with Cells of the Immune System.- When HIV meets the Immune System: Network Theory, Alloimmunity, Autoimmunity, and AIDS.