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G. Thomas Farmer, John Cook

Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis

Name: Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis
Author: G. Thomas Farmer

Volume 1 - The Physical Climate

Gebonden Engels 2013 2013e druk 9789400757561

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An introduction to the principles of climate change science with an emphasis on the empirical evidence for climate change and a warming world. Additional readings are given at the end of each chapter. A list of "Things to Know" opens each chapter. Chapters are arranged so that the student is first introduced to the scientific method(s), examples of the use of the scientific method from other sciences drawn from the history of science with an emphasis on climate science. Climate science is treated in each chapter based on the premise of global warming. Chapter treatments on the atmosphere. biosphere, geosphere, hydrosphere, and anthroposphere and their inter-relationships are given.

Specificaties

ISBN13:9789400757561

Taal:Engels

Bindwijze:gebonden

Aantal pagina's:564

Uitgever:Springer Netherlands

Druk:2013

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CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction to Global Warming 1.2 Greenhouse Effect 1.3 Climate Sensitivity 1.4 Average Global Temperature from 1880 to 2009 1.5 Carbon Dioxide 1.6 Global Warming, Climate, and Weather 1.6.1 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1979-2005 1.6.2 Impacts of Global Warming 1.7 Timescales, Positive Feedbacks, and Tipping Points 1.8 Energy and Climate Policy 1.8.1 Energy Choices 1.9 Forcings and Feedbacks 1.9.1 Earth’s Albedo 1.9.2 Irradiance 1.10 Energy Budget 1.11 Affected Weather 1.12 Hockey Stick Controversy Additional Reading PART I – SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLES AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD 2 – SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLES Abstract Key WordsThings to Know Introduction 2.1 Internet Searches 2.2 The Warming Earth: Heat and the Principles of Thermodynamics 2.2.1 The Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics 2.2.2 The First Law of Thermodynamics 2.2.3 The Second Law of Thermodynamics 2.2.4 The Third Law of Thermodynamics 2.3 Climate Scientists 2.3.1 Scientific Laws and Climate Scientists 2.4 Scientific Jargon 2.5 Communication between Scientists and the Public 2.6 The Concept of Time 2.7 From Hothouse to Icehouse 2.8 Earth’s Energy Imbalance 2.9 An Introduction to Science 2.9.1 Reasons to Study Science 2.9.2 The Philosophy of Science 2.9.3 Early History of Science 2.9.4 Aristotle (384-322 BC) 2.10 Early Scientists 2.10.1 Pliny the Elder (23 AD – 79 AD) 2.10.2 Claudius Ptolemy (c. AD 90 – c. AD 168) 2.10.3 Nicolaus Copernicus (1473 – 1543) 2.10.4 Galileo Galilei (1564 – 1642) 2.10.5 Francis Bacon (1561 – 1626) 2.10.6 Johannes Kepler and Tycho Brahe 2.10.7 Isaac Newton 2.11 Empiricism 2.12 Inductive Logic 2.13 Multiple Working Hypotheses 2.14 Deductive Logic 2.15 Models and Simulations 2.16 The Nature of Science 2.17 The Science of Nature 2.18 Chaos Theory 2.19 Scientific Notation Additional Reading 3 - THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD AND ITS USE Abstract Keywords Things to Know The Scientific Method 3.1 A Linearized Approach to the Scientific Method 3.2 Data Collection – Experimentation, Measurement, Observation 3.3 Ideas, Persistence, Documentation, Testing, Reproducibility, Publication 3.4 Hypotheses 3.5 Theories 3.6 Newton’s Laws of Motion 3.7 The Peer-Review Process 3.8 Use of the Scientific Method 3.8.1 James Hutton and Uniformitarianism 3.8.2 Charles Darwin and the Origin of Species 3.8.3 James Watson and Francis Crick – the Structure of DNA 3.8.4 Harry Hess and Plate Tectonic Theory 3.8.5 Plate Tectonic Theory 3.8.6 Wallace Broecker and the First Use of the Term Global Warming 3.9 Use of the Scientific Method in Climate Change Science 3.9.1 Joseph Fourier and the Greenhouse Effect 3.9.2 John Tyndall and Thermal Radiation 3.9.3 Svante Arrhenius and Carbon Dioxide 3.9.4 T. C. Chamberlin and the Ice Ages 3.9.5 Guy Stewart Callendar and Rising Temperatures 3.9.6 Gilbert Plass and Doubling of Carbon Dioxide 3.9.7 Hans Suess and Carbon-14 in Carbon Dioxide 3.9.8 Roger Revelle and Ocean Chemistry 3.9.9 Charles David Keeling and CO2 3.9.10 Syukuro (“Suki”) Manabe and Climate Modeling 3.9.11 James Hansen and Temperature Analysis 3.9.12 William Ruddiman and Paleoclimate 3.9.13 Gavin Schmidt and GISS 3.9.14 Stefan Rahmstorf, Sea Level and Temperature Rise Additional Reading PART II – OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE 4 – EARTH’S ENERGY BUDGET Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 4.1 Weather and Climate 4.2 Solar and Heat Energy 4.3 Earth’s Radiation Laws 4.4 Earth’s Energy Imbalance Additional Reading 5 – CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS Abstract Keywords Things to Know 5. Climate Change Trends 5.1 Rising Temperatures 5.1.1 Temperature Scales 5.1.2 Temperatures Shown by Graphs 5.1.3 Rising Land and Sea Temperatures 5.1.4 Tropospheric Warming and Stratospheric Cooling 5.2 Sources of Uncertainty with Temperature Data 5.3 Climate Construction from Instrumental Data 5.4 Measurement of Temperature 5.5.1 Global Temperature from Meteorological Stations 5.5 The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) Study 5.6 Land Temperatures from Boreholes 5.7 Rising Sea Temperatures 5.7.1 Relative Distribution of Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs) 5.7.2 Ocean Heat Content 5.8 Melting Ice 5.8.1 Permafrost, Methane, and Clathrates 5.8.2 Methane Clathrates 5.9 Rising Sea Level 5.10 Migration of Plants and Animals 5.11 Species Extinctions 5.12 Human Health Effects of Rising Temperatures 5.13 Attribution 5.14 Greenhouse Gases 5.15 Human Fingerprints on Global Warming 5.16.1 Earth’s Cooling Upper Atmosphere 5.16.2 Rising Tropopause 5.16.3 Less Heat Escaping to Space 5.16.4 Nights Warming Faster than Days 5.16.5 Winter Warming Faster than Summer 5.16.6 More Fossil Fuel Carbon in Coral 5.16.7 Shrinking Upper Atmosphere 5.16.8 Less Oxygen in the Atmosphere 5.16.9 More Fossil Fuel Carbon in the Atmosphere 5.16.10 More Heat Returning to Earth 5.16.11 Pattern of Ocean Warming 5.16 Components of the Climate Change Process 5.17 Other Effects of Global Warming 5.18 Forcings and Feedbacks in the Climate System 5.18.1 Forcings 5.18.2 Positive and Negative Forcing and their Effects 5.18.3 Feedbacks 5.19 Climate Sensitivity Additional Reading 6 – EARTH’S SURFACE TEMPERATURE Abstract Keywords Things to Know 6. Introduction 6.1 Tipping Points 6.2 Temperature Records 6.3 Data Reduction 6.4 Data Analysis 6.5 Climate Data Analysis Tools (CDAT) 6.6 Data Reporting 6.7 Average Land Temperatures 6.8 History of the Development of the Global Average Temperature 6.9 Current Analysis Method 6.10 Temperature Anomalies 6.11 History of Temperature Recordings 6.12 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) 6.13 Projections of Future Temperatures 6.14 The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), 2007 Additional Reading 7 – CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AS EARTH SCIENCE Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 7.1 Climate Science as Earth Science 7.2 The Faint Young Sun Paradox 7.3 The Gaia Hypothesis 7.4 Introduction to Life Science 7.5 Introduction to the Atmosphere 7.6 Open System Science 7.7 Uniformitarianism and Climate Change Science 7.8 Recent Climate Data and Future Projections 7.9 Components of the Climate Change System 7.10 Good Science, Bad Science, and Non-Science 7.11 Examples of Good Science 7.12 Examples of Bad Science 7.13 Examples of Non-Science 7.14 Ethics in Science 7.15 The Concept of Scale in Earth and Climate Change Science 7.16 Map Scales 7.17 Fractals 7.18 Graph Scales 7.19 Time Scales 7.20 Earth Scales 7.21 Planetary Scales 7.22 Cosmic Scales Additional Reading PART III – EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE 8 – INTRODUCTION TO EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 8.1 The Atmosphere 8.2 Composition of the Atmosphere 8.2.1 Carbon Dioxide 8.2.2 Methane (CH4) 8.2.3 Nitrous Oxide (N20) 8.2.4 Ozone (O3) 8.2.5 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) 8.2.6 Other Trace Gases 8.2.7 Aerosols 8.3 Lapse Rate 8.4 Vertical Structure of the Atmosphere 8.5 Atmospheric Circulation Additional Reading9 – CARBON DIOXIDE, OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES, AND THE CARBON CYCLE Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 9.1 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 9.1.1 The Keeling Curve 9.2 The Carbon Cycle 9.3 Carbon Dioxide and the Carbon Cycle 9.4 Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide 9.4.1 Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 9.4.2 Oxidation – Reduction of Carbon 9.4.3 Sinks of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 9.4.4 Carbon Cycle Disequilibrium9.4.5 Restoring Carbon Cycle Equilibrium 9.5 Methane (CH4) 9.5.1 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Methane 9.6 Nitrous Oxide 9.6.1 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide 9.6.2 Increases in Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide Concentration 9.7 Halocarbons 9.7.1 Sources and Sinks of Halocarbons 9.7.2 Increases in Atmospheric Halocarbons Concentration 9.8 Ozone 9.9 Other Trace Gases 9.10 Atmospheric Residence Time of Greenhouse Gases Additional Reading 10 - EARTH’S ALBEDO, RADIATIVE FORCING AND CLIMATE CHANGE Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 10.1 Earth’s Albedo 10.1.1 Solid Earth Albedo 10.1.2 Ocean Albedo 10.1.3 Glacial Ice Albedo 10.1.4 Water Vapor 10.1.5 Cloud Albedo 10.1.6 Deforestation and Albedo 10.2 Radiative Forcing 10.2.1 Factors Affecting Greenhouse Radiative Forcing 10.3 Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) 10.4 Calculation of Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing 10.5 Radiative Forcing of Ozone 10.5.1 Stratospheric Ozone 10.5.2 Tropospheric Ozone 10.6 Aerosols 10.6.1 Sources and Sinks of Aerosols 10.6.2 Radiative Forcing by Aerosols 10.7 Direct Radiative Forcing 10.8 Indirect Radiative Forcing 10.9 Total Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing: Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols 10.10 Observed Climate Variations 10.11 Clouds and their Impacts on Climate Change 10.11.1 High-Level Clouds 10.11.2 Mid-Level Clouds 10.11.3 Low-Level Clouds 10.12 Orographic Rainfall Additional Reading 11 – ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND CLIMATE Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 11.1 Atmospheric Circulation 11.2 Insolation 11.3 Air Flow Patterns 11.4 Climate Change Effects on Atmospheric Circulations 11.5 Extreme Weather Events 11.5.1 Washington, D.C. Metro 11.5.2 Binghamton, N.Y. 11.5.3 Allentown, PA. 11.5.4 Harrisburg, PA 11.5.5 Dayton, Ohio 11.5.6 Colorado Springs, Colo. 11.5.7 Tucson, Arizona. 11.6 Record Heat 11.6.1 Houston, Texas 11.6.2 Dallas, Texas 11.6.3 Phoenix, Arizona 11.6.4 Corpus Christi, Texas. 11.7 Record Cold 11.7.1 International Falls, Minn. 11.8 Record River Flooding 11.9 Tropical Storm Lee's Tornadoes 11.10 Other Meteorological Events Additional Reading PART IV - THE WORLD OCEAN AND CLIMATE 12 – THE WORLD OCEAN Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 12.1 The World Ocean 12.2 Ocean Salinity 12.3 Ocean Topography 12.4 The World Ocean and Carbon Dioxide 12.5 Ocean Acidification 12.6 Oceanic Circulation 12.6.1 Thermohaline Circulation Additional Reading 13 – OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RISING SEA LEVEL Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 13.1 Global Warming and Sea Level Rise 13.2 Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Arctic Sea Ice 13.3 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 13.4 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 13.5 Future Potential Sea Level Rise 13.6 Ocean Heat Content 13.7 El Niño – La Niña (or ENSO) Additional Reading PART V – EARTH’S CRYOSPHERE AND RECENT CLIMATE HISTORY 14 – GLACIERS AND THE LATEST ICE AGEAbstractKeywords Things to Know 14. Introduction 14.1 Greenland Ice Sheet 14.2 Antarctica 14.3 Mountain Glaciers 14.4 Ice Cores 14.5 Stable Isotope Analysis 14.6 Ice Cores and Proxies 14.6.1 Dating Ice Cores 14.6.2 Mountain Glacier Ice Cores 14.7 The Ice Age 14.7.1 History 14.7.2 Climate Forcing by Orbital Variations 14.7.3 Eccentricity 14.7.4 Obliquity 14.7.5 Precession 14.8 Milankovitch Cycles and Ice Ages 14.9 Solar Variations 14.10 Questions not Explained by Milankovitch Cycles Additional Reading 15 – PERMAFROST AND METHANE Abstract Keywords Things to Know 15. Introduction 15.1 Distribution 15.2 Origin of Permafrost 15.3 Methane Chemistry 15.4 Future Projections for Permafrost and Methane 15.5 Methane Gun Hypothesis Additional Reading PART VI - LAND AND ITS CLIMATES16 CONTINENTS AND MOUNTAIN RANGES Abstract Keywords Things to Know 16. Introduction 16.1 Continental Drift 16.2 Harry Hess and Sea-Floor Spreading 16.3 Plate Tectonics 16.3.1 Types of Plate Boundaries 16.4 Continental Mountain Ranges 16.5 Islands Additional Reading 17 – CLIMATE CLASSIFICATIONS Abstract Key Words Things to Know An Introduction to Climate Classification 17.1 Air Masses 17.2 Modern Climate Classification 17.2.1 The Bergeron Climate Classification 17.3 The Köppen-Geiger Classification 17.3.1 Group A Climates 17.3.2 Group B Climates 17.3.3 Group C Climates 17.3.4 Group D Climates 17.3.5 Group E Climates 17.4 The Thornthwaite Climate Classification Additional Reading PART VII - CLIMATE MODELS 18 – TYPES OF MODELS Abstract Key Words Things to Know Introduction 18.1 Climate Models 18.1.1 Simplifying the Climate System 18.1.2 Boundary Conditions 18.1.3 Climate Modeling Centers 18.2 Types of Climate Models 18.2.1 Box Models 18.2.2 Energy Balance Models 18.2.3 Radiative-Convective Models 18.2.4 Statistical-Dynamical Models 18.2.5 General Circulation Models 18.3 Confidence and Validation Additional Reading PART VIII – CLIMATES OF THE PAST (PALEOCLIMATOLOGY) 19 – ANCIENT CLIMATES AND PROXIES Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 19.1 Historical Records 19.2 Ice Cores 19.3 Stable Isotope Analysis 19.4 Ice Cores and Proxies 19.5 Dating Ice Cores 19.6 Dendroclimatology 19.7 Ocean Sediments 19.8 Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Biogenic Material 19.9 Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Terrigenous Material 19.10 Terrestrial Sediments 19.11 Periglacial Features 19.12 Glacial Fluctuations 19.13 Lake-Level Fluctuations 19.13.1 Russia’s Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake E) 19.14 Pollen Analysis 19.15 Sedimentary Rocks Additional Reading 20 – CLIMATES OF THE RECENT PAST Abstract Key Words Things to Know Introduction 20.1 Holocene Climates 20.2 Younger Dryas Cooling 20.3 Mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum 20.4 Late Holocene Neoglaciation 20.5 Little Ice Age 20.6 Medieval Warm Period 20.7 Holocene Climate Forcing Mechanisms 20.8 Coupled Internally-Externally Driven Climate Change 20.9 Contemporary Climate Change Additional Reading 21 - PLEISTOCENE GLACIATIONS Abstract Keywords Things to Know 21. Pleistocene Glaciations 21.1 Glacials and Interglacials 21.2 Causes of Glacial Advances and Retreats 21.3 Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum 21.4 Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) 21.5 The Cooling Begins 21.6 Formation of the Isthmus of Panama and the Freezing of the Arctic 21.7 Other Influences and Possible Causes of Ice Ages 21.8 Maximum Extent and Characteristics of Continental Glaciers 21.8.1 The North American Ice Line 21.8.2 Europe and Asia’s Continental Glaciation 21.8.3 Southern Hemisphere Glaciation Additional Reading PART IX - FUTURE CLIMATES AND MITIGATION 22 - PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATES Abstract Key Words Things to Know Introduction 22.1 Hotter - Global Warming 22.2 Flatter – The Digital Age 22.3 More Crowded – Population Increase 22.3.1 Population and Demographics 22.4 IPCC Projections of Future Climate Change 22.5 Politics and Global Warming 22.5.1 Politicians and Their Views 22.5.2 Ronald Reagan 22.5.3 Richard Nixon 22.5.4 Barak Obama Additional Reading PART X – SKEPTICS AND DENIERS OF GLOBAL WARMING 23 - UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE DENIAL Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 23.1 Basis for the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change 23.2 Characteristics of Denial 23.2.1 Fake Experts 23.2.2 Cherry Picking 23.2.3 Logical Fallacies 23.2.4 Impossible Expectations 23.2.5 Conspiracy Theories 23.2.6 Denial Characteristics at a Psychological Level 23.3 Drivers of Climate Denial 23.3.1 Conservative Ideology 23.3.2 Conservative Think Tanks 23.3.3 Mainstream Media’s Balance-as-Bias 23.3.4 Government 23.3.5 Corporate Vested Interests 23.3.6 Internet 23.4 Responding to Climate Denial 23.4.1 Familiarity Backfire Effect 23.4.2 Overkill Backfire Effect 23.4.3 Worldview Backfire Effect 23.4.4 Alternative Explanation 23.4.5 Summary Additional Reading PART XI - SPECIFIC DECLARATIONS AGAINST CLIMATE SCIENCE AND CLIMATE SCIENTISTS 24 - REBUTTALS TO CLIMATE MYTHS Abstract Keywords Things to Know Introduction 24.1 Fake Experts 24.1.1 A Petition of Tens of Thousands of Non-Experts 24.1.2 A Contrarian Take on Climate Sensitivity 24.2 Cherry Picking 24.2.1 Warming at Over Two Hiroshima Bombs per Second 24.2.2 Hockey Stick versus Hockey Team 24.2.3 Sun and Climate Moving in Opposite Directions 24.2.4 Human Emissions Upsetting the Natural Balance 22.3 Logical Fallacies 24.3.1 What does past climate change tell us? 24.3.2 CO2 Lag – The Chicken and Egg Dilemma 24.3.3 What Were Scientists Predicting in the 1970s? 24.3.4 How a Trace Gas has such a Significant Effect 24.4 Impossible Expectations 24.4.1 What Lessons do we learn from Past Model Predictions? 24.4.2 Science is never settled 24.4.3 Uncertainty is Not Our Friend 24.5 Conspiracy Theories 24.5.1 Nine Climategate Investigations Across Two Countries 24.5.2 Confusing ‘Mike’s Trick’ with ‘Hide the Decline’ 24.5.3 Tracking down Trenberth’s ‘Missing Heat’ Additional Reading ABBREVIATIONS GLOSSARY APPENDICES INDEX

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